Melting glaciers: A possibility for future pandemic

Half of humanity relies on glaciers as a source of water for domestic purposes, agriculture, and power generation, either directly or indirectly. Glaciers are also biodiversity pillars, nourishing numerous ecosystems. Glaciers have been identified at 50 UNESCO World Heritage sites (a total of 18,600 glaciers have been identified in these 50 sites, covering approximately 66,000 km2), representing nearly 10% of the Earth's total glacierized area. When glaciers melt quickly, millions of people face water scarcity and an increased risk of natural disasters such as flooding, and millions more may be displaced by the resulting rise in sea levels.

Since 2000, these glaciers have been melting at a faster rate due to CO2 emissions, which are rising temperatures. They currently lose 58 billion tons of ice every year and are responsible for about 5% of recorded global sea-level increases. This study emphasizes the critical need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and invest in Nature-based Solutions, which can help mitigate climate change and allow people to better adapt to its effects.

Reference:

UNESCO finds that some iconic world heritage glaciers will disappear by 2050. (2023, April 20). UNESCO.  //www.unesco.org/en/articles/unesco-finds-some-iconic-world-heritage-glaciers-will-disappear-2050

Global warming causing mountain glaciers and perennial ice-berg to melt rapidly. Moreover, researchers have collected the soil and sediments sample from different parts of the world suggesting, after their genetic analysis, the risk of viral spillover which can potentially infect a new host and instigate a pandemic.

A study conducted by Ohio state university, in the ice sample taken from the Tibetan plateau in China, found 33 viruses consisting of 28 among them novel in nature and estimated to be approximately 15,000 years old. A similar study conducted by National Centre for Scientific Research found a virus in Siberian permafrost that was infectious for 30,000 years. The researcher of this study called it ‘a recipe of disaster’.

The specific solutions to the problem suggested by scientists, which can possibly minimize glacier melting, are reducing carbon and greenhouse gases emission, slowing down erosion, and creating artificial icebergs. Further, addressing the health and potential environmental consequences of glacier melting needed a multi-faceted approach encompassing climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, international collaboration on research and education, commitment to follow COP, and improving public health infrastructure to sustain an equilibrium in the ecosystems.

Rounce et al. (2023). Global glacier change in the 21st century: Every increase in temperature matters. Science379,78-83. DOI:10.1126/science.abo1324 accessed on 22-08-2023

Geddes L. (2022). Next pandemic may come from melting glaciers, new data shows. The Guardian. //www.theguardian.com/science/2022/oct/19/next-pandemic-may-come-from-melting-glaciers-new-data-shows accessed on 22-08-2023

The fundamental to life on earth is climate and its powerful impact on health of the human. It is evident that climate change can be threatening to humanity, majorly when glacier melting is associated. The complex channels for transmission of melting of glaciers shown a burden in controlling and preventing diseases as the number of disease are rapidly increasing.

While addressing climate change to develop and implement services, there is a need to public health professionals to confront the several practical and possible realities. Firstly, the varying effects of climate change in different regions. Secondly, the people susceptible should be identified, not all are equally susceptible. Lastly, the effects of highly complex, and planning and action should be multidimensional. 

Emerging of another pandemics like Covid-19 would inflict immense suffering and shown to be an uncontrollable burden on humankind, it is important to tackle  the risk factors and etiology that contributes in its intensification.

References: 

1. Frumkin, H., Hess, J.,Luber,G., Malilay,J., McGeehin,M. (2008). Climate Change: The Public Health Response”, American Journal of Public Health98, no. 3, 435-445. //doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2007.119362
2. Varghese, R., Patel, P., Kumar, D., & Sharma, R. (2023). Climate change and glacier melting: risks for unusual outbreaks? Journal of Travel Medicine, 30(4). //doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taad015
3. Luis Andrés Yarzábal, Salazar, B., & Ramón Alberto Batista-García. (2021). Climate change, melting cryosphere and frozen pathogens: Should we worry…? Environmental Sustainability, 4(3), 489–501. //doi.org/10.1007/s42398-021-00184-8

A virus entering a new host for the first time may be more probably to arise close to melting glaciers, according to genetic testing of soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest high Arctic freshwater lake in the world.
According to the findings, it is growing likely that viruses and bacteria dormant in glaciers and permafrost would reawaken and infect nearby wildlife when global temperatures rise due to climate change, especially if their ranges move closer to the poles.

Reference: 

//www.theguardian.com/science/2022/oct/19/next-pandemic-may-come-from-melting-glaciers-new-data-shows

According to new research, the next pandemic could be caused by materials in melting ice rather than bats or birds. The genetic examination of soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the world's biggest high Arctic freshwater lake, reveals that the probability of viral spillover - when a virus infects a new host for the first time - may be higher near melting glaciers.

The findings suggest that if global temperatures rise due to climate change, viruses and bacteria locked up in glaciers and permafrost may reawaken and infect local species, especially as their range changes closer to the poles.

Sources: //www.theguardian.com/science/2022/oct/19/next-pandemic-may-come-from-melting-glaciers-new-data-shows

It is a difficult to even think that melting glaciers might help bring about upcoming pandemics. It's very important to remember that while environmental changes brought on by melting glaciers can have a variety of effects, doing so directly takes careful consideration of a number of different aspects.

The liberation of previously imprisoned pathogens we have already seen, such as ancient viruses and bacteria, as the glaciers retreat is one way that melting glaciers could be a heavy influence with the dynamics of disease. 

References:

//www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8164958/

//public.wmo.int/en/media/news/glacier-melt-and-arctic-change-affects-globe

Melting glaciers could spread mysterious pathogens that cause future pandemics, scientists warn -

Situated on a Canadian body of land known as Ellesmere Island, Lake Hazen is drop-for-drop the largest freshwater lake in the High Arctic. While its surface area is surpassed in size by Lake Taymyr in Russia and Lake Inari in Finland, it contains more water than either of those bodies, owing its mammoth volume in large part to the numerous glaciers that feed it. Yet as climate change worsens, increased glacial melt — the kind that is causing glaciers from Mount Everest to Africa to disappear altogether — is going to spur all kinds of natural disasters. The most obvious one is sea level rise: for instance, the glaciers in the Greenland Ice Sheet just east of Lake Hazen are currently melting so dramatically that experts believe they could cause a mass rise in sea level displacing as much as 40% of the population.

References:

//www.salon.com/2022/10/20/melting-glaciers-could-spread-mysterious-pathogens-that-cause-future-pandemics-scientists-warn/

The melting glaciers because of the global warming and altering climate can lead to the spread of new viruses and the future pandemics. As climate change is rapidly transforming environments, it is becoming critical to quantify the potential for spillovers. To address this issue, Audrée Lemieux et al., used metagenomics approach and focused on two environments, soil and lake sediments from Lake Hazen, the largest High Arctic freshwater lake in the world. We used DNA and RNA sequencing to reconstruct the lake’s virosphere in both its sediments and soils, as well as its range of eukaryotic hosts. We then estimated the spillover risk by measuring the congruence between the viral and the eukaryotic host phylogenetic trees, and show that spillover risk increases with runoff from glacier melt, a proxy for climate change. Should climate change also shift species range of potential viral vectors and reservoirs northwards, the High Arctic could become fertile ground for emerging pandemics.

Another study by Carlson et al., predicted that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, this study suggest that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 °C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. This study also highlights the urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.

References:

Lemieux Audrée, Colby Graham A., Poulain Alexandre J. and Aris-Brosou Stéphane. 2022Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sedimentsProc. R. Soc. B.2892022107320221073 //doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.1073

Carlson, C.J., Albery, G.F., Merow, C. et al. Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk. Nature 607, 555–562 (2022). //doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w

A study published in Nature Communications showed that warming near Lake Hazen triggered large mass losses from nearby glaciers, resulting in increased delivery of organic carbon and legacy contaminants to the lake. These changes could alter the microbial communities and viral diversity in the lake, potentially increasing the chances of spillover.

In 2020, researchers found genetic material from 33 viruses, 28 of them novel, in ice samples taken from the Tibetan plateau in China. Based on their location, the viruses were estimated to be approximately 15,000 years old.

References: 

• Could melting glaciers cause future pandemics? – DW – 10/21/2022
• Melting Glaciers Could Unleash Frozen Viruses That Fuel Future Pandemics: Study (commondreams.org)

Introduction:
The consequences of climate change extend beyond environmental shifts, with emerging research suggesting a potentially overlooked risk: the connection between melting glaciers and the possibility of future pandemics. As global temperatures rise, glaciers release microbial life that has been locked away for centuries. This literature review synthesizes recent findings from studies exploring the link between melting glaciers and the potential for viral spillover, emphasizing the implications for public health and ecosystem dynamics.

Glacier Melting and Viral Spillover:
Recent genetic analysis of soil and sediment samples from Lake Hazen, a prominent high Arctic freshwater lake, sheds light on the heightened risk of viral spillover in proximity to melting glaciers. The study suggests that as glaciers melt, viruses and bacteria encased in the ice could awaken and infect local wildlife, particularly as these organisms' ranges shift closer to the poles due to climate change. This phenomenon poses a new challenge for predicting and managing infectious disease outbreaks.

Environmental Change and Disease Transmission:
The study reveals a concerning correlation between glacial meltwater and viral spillover potential. As large amounts of meltwater flow into surrounding areas, the risk of viruses infecting new hosts becomes more pronounced. The implications of this finding are significant, given the potential for climate change-induced range shifts of existing species. The alteration of ecosystems and the resulting interactions between species provide a breeding ground for zoonotic diseases, increasing the likelihood of outbreaks.

Historical Precedents and Unknown Viruses:
The study is supported by historical events such as the anthrax outbreak in Siberia, which was triggered by a heatwave melting permafrost and exposing infected carcasses. Additionally, recent research has identified previously unknown viruses in glacier ice samples, suggesting that these ancient pathogens may be capable of reawakening. Such instances underscore the urgent need for further investigation into the potential risks associated with melting glaciers.

Implications and Future Directions:
While the study doesn't definitively predict pandemics, it highlights the concerning trend of heightened viral spillover risk as temperatures rise and glaciers melt. The interconnectedness of climate change, glacier retreat, ecosystem disruption, and disease emergence calls for immediate attention from both scientific and policy perspectives. It remains imperative to explore the microbial landscape within glaciers and permafrost to fully understand the scope of potential threats and to develop strategies to mitigate the associated risks.

Conclusion:
The relationship between melting glaciers and the risk of viral spillover presents a nuanced challenge at the intersection of climate change, microbiology, and public health. As glacial retreat accelerates and ecosystems evolve, the potential for infectious disease emergence grows. While uncertainties remain, the evidence points to the urgent need for comprehensive research and proactive measures to prevent and manage the potential consequences of viral spillover from melting glaciers.

References

Geddes, L. (2022, October 19). Next pandemic may come from melting glaciers, new data shows. The Guardian.  //www.theguardian.com/science/2022/oct/19/next-pandemic-may-come-from-melting-glaciers-new-data-shows

Climate change is altering our perceptions of security. "This will not be the first time people have fought over land, water, and resources, but it will be on a scale that dwarfs previous conflicts," stated the Congolese envoy during a UN Security Council debate in April 2007. It was dubbed the "number one threat to mankind" by the French. 

//www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/greatest-threat-global-security-climate-change-not-merely-environmental-problem

It is quite concerning that the effects of melting glaciers could result in future pandemics. Ancient microbial and viral diseases buried in the ice may be liberated as a result of glacial retreat caused by climate change, increasing the likelihood of spillover events and new disease outbreaks. Concerns concerning cross-species transmission and the creation of completely new diseases are brought up by the possibility of latent viruses and bacteria reawakening as glaciers melt.

These concerns are highlighted by incidents like the Siberian anthrax outbreak brought on by permafrost thawing and the discovery of ancient virus species in glacier samples. The obvious link between glacier melting, climate change, and the release of antiquated pathogens underscores the importance of thorough research and readiness, even though it is difficult to anticipate precise pandemics from these occurrences.

Understanding the complex relationships between melting glaciers, viral spillovers, and potential transmission pathways is essential. As demonstrated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the world remains vulnerable to novel diseases. The emergence of another pandemic could have devastating consequences, overwhelming healthcare systems and causing widespread suffering. To address these risks, it's crucial to intensify efforts to mitigate climate change, curb contributing factors, and bolster global preparedness for potential disease outbreaks. By acknowledging and addressing the implications of melting glaciers on future pandemics, we can work towards reducing the likelihood of such catastrophic events and protecting the well-being of humanity.

Reference: Varghese, R., Patel, P., Kumar, D., & Sharma, R. (2023). Climate change and glacier melting: risks for unusual outbreaks? Journal of Travel Medicine, 30(4), taad015. //doi.org/10.1093/jtm/taad015

Melting of glaciers provides an atmosphere for the interaction between humans and pathogens. Glaciers cover about one tenth of the land surface worldwide, accumulating approximately 170,000 km³ of ice in cryosphere. Glaciers contain myriads of microorganisms, many of which are metabolically active and multiplying, although at very low rates; these microbes are confined to the small veins formed between ice crystals, where they benefit from the presence of liquid water and enough nutrients to sustain their basal metabolism for a long time. majority of ancient microorganisms are immured in the subsurface, from where they can be released when water flows downwards through moulins and crevasses, and reaches the bedrock. Average density of microorganisms in glacier ice varies between 10² and 10⁷ cells/ml, approximately 4 × 10²¹ microbes are released each year, due to the melting of non-polar ice .

//doi.org/10.1007/s42398-021-00184- 8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yarzábal, L. A., Buela Salazar, L. M., & Batista-García, R. A. (2021). Climate change, melting cryosphere and frozen pathogens: Should we worry…? Environmental Sustainability, 4(3), 489-501. //doi.org/10.1007/s42398-021-00184-8